Pitching History?

What started out as a Rosenthal Rumor has ended up as one of the biggest trades I have ever seen. The Phillies will get Roy Halladay from Toronto and send Cliff Lee to Seattle. The prospects involved in the deal, which I will discuss in a minute, are among Philadelphia and Seattle's best. Also today, the Red Sox signed John Lackey to a five-year deal. It's three of the best pitchers in the game, all of them likely among the top 10 that most teams would choose to start a playoff game, and they have all jumped to the tops of other rotations.*

I'll start with Halladay to Philly, because, to me, it's the most interesting part of the trade. The Phillies give up Cliff Lee, the man who led their lackluster rotation to contention for the World Series, and their second, third and fourth ranked prospects by Baseball America, for Halladay. Those prospects (Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud) were rumored to be the asking price for Halladay last summer. This begs the question, why not just trade those guys for Doc straight up?

We can only assume that some sort of salary cap mandate led to Lee's dismissal, but wow, they wouldn't give up Drabek and J.A. Happ for Halladay, but now they'll surrender Drabek and Lee? Is one year of Cliff Lee at $8MM really something a World Series contender should need to move? Why not just send the prospects to Toronto, add Halladay to Lee and Hamels and find some other way to move a few mil. To put it in perspective, the team just gave Placido Polanco three years and $18MM. Polanco will be 34 this season and has a .348 career OBP. Jamie Moyer will also be making $6.5MM this year. Are you telling me that you can't find a cheaper alternative to Polanco that would enable you to keep the guy who beat the Yankees twice in the World Series? There may be something I'm not getting here, but it doesn't add up.

The Mariners give up prospects, Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and a third player rumored to be J.C. Ramirez for Cliff Lee. As Dave Cameron at U.S.S. Mariner put it:

"The three prospects the M’s gave up? None of them are top notch, elite guys. They all have potential, but their risk-reward profiles do not put them in the top tier of minor leaguers...This is, quite frankly, a heist. The Mariners are getting a Cy Young caliber pitcher for some decent-but-not-great prospects. They aren’t giving up Morrow. They aren’t giving up Saunders. They aren’t even giving up Triunfel. And yet, they walk away with one of the five or six best pitchers in baseball...Seriously, dance in the streets. Build a bust of Zduriencik and place it on your mantle. Name your first born son Jack and your daughter Jackie. When this becomes official, hug someone. This trade is that good."

In a day that added Halladay to Hamels and Lackey to Lester, the Mariners may have ended up with the league's top 1-2 punch in Lee and King Felix. A reasonable contract to Chone Figgins has added to an already stellar defensive club, and, coupled with the Angels losses, the Mariners are poised to make a run at the playoffs. It's pretty impressive given the bleak outlook of the team only a year ago.

For Toronto, I see a clear win, given that the got what they initially wanted for Halladay, who they really had to move. Drabek is supposedly the top prospect arm they needed, and Michael Taylor, who they will reportedly flip for stud hitting prospect Brett Wallace, is clearly a legit return. The package of Drabek, Wallace and D'Arnaud seems like what you should ask for for even one year of a top starter like Halladay.

The day's other pitching transaction has the Red Sox bringing in John Lackey. It seems fitting that his signing is overshadowed by a bigger move. His career has really been extraordinary, considering his success since he first came up and continued ability to dominate against American League lineups, but he garners less attention than he has deserved. It's a great deal for Boston, and when you consider that they could now trade a Buchholz or Kelly for a hitter like Adrian Gonzalez, the A.L. East should really be out-of-this-world good.

*You could argue that Lackey may technically not be "at the top" of Boston's rotation, but I tend to think of a pitching rotation as more linear than up and down. Beckett and Lester may start games one and two of the season, but a "third starter" has just as much opportunity over a season to dominate. And Lackey should be the best third starter in the league.

A few Dodgers notes on this day of pitching transaction greatness. As we look at these top starters being moved, including Lee for salary reasons, I can't help but turn my thoughts to Chad Billingsley. Some people have compared his path to Lee's, who struggled to the point of being sent to the minors only a year before winning the American League Cy Young. If you look at Billingsley's career numbers, there should be no reason for anything but optimism for a young, cheap starter to take form as one of the National League's best pitchers. His second half struggles were just those, and it seems silly to me to take the leap of no faith and assume he won't bounce back.

And Finally... True Blue L.A. offers a funny --and terrifying for Dodgers fans -- piece about a plan to bring back Darren Dreifort. Just look at all that money that the Dodgers will be paying all those guys for all those years.