Wednesday, June 6, 2007

What Happens in Vegas, Stays in Vegas

The Dodgers have just dropped their second in a row in San Diego, and it's clear they have to do something to improve offensively. The changes need to start with Nomar Garciaparra and Juan Pierre. They have both had distinguished careers, during which they established reputations as run producers and run scorers respectively, but they just aren't getting their jobs done and at this point in the season, Grady Little and Ned Colletti need to make some difficult decisions.


To me, there are a few options, all of which involve the inclusion of either Matt Kemp or James Loney, or both, into the equation. Kemp and Loney are significantly outplaying their Major League counterparts, and the reasons for keeping them bottled up in Las Vegas do not justify continuing with the status quo. Look at the numbers, especially the discrepancy in their on-base and slugging numbers:

FIRST BASE

Nomar: (10 doubles, one home run)
.280 avg./ .328 OBP/ .341 SLUG/ .669 OBP. (On base+slugging)

Loney: (17 doubles, three triples, one home run)
.284/ .349/ .383/ .732

OUTFIELD

Pierre: (eight doubles, two triples)
.269/ .298/ .318/ .617

Kemp: (16 doubles, three triples, four home runs)
.335/ .380/ .551/ .931

The discrepancy is staggering, especially in Kemp's case compared to Pierre. In one day floating this notion around the MLB Productions office, I met a few challenges to my argument, but none carried any weight. One guy -- a Yankee fan who loves to argue that A-Rod "isn't clutch" -- suggested Pierre's value as a base stealer makes him worthy of a starting spot in center field and at the top of the batting order. He's wrong, because Pierre's advantage in stolen bases (18-9) pales in comparison to Kemp's overwhelming supremacy in every other statistical category. Pierre has the lowest OBP of any Dodger, hits with no power, and has been a defensive liability. Sure, Kemp is young, but he has hit with power in the Majors and his plate approach appears to be improving by the inning.

Another guy, a Dodgers fan actually, went with the logic, "I'll take Nomar and Pierre because they've done it before." He's right. Nomar has driven in runs with the best of them, but he's also been known as an impatient hitter his whole career. And Pierre has hit .300 and stolen bases and scored runs, but his knack for making contact has come at the expense of reaching base with walks.

Right now, the Dodgers need to hit more line drives and get better at-bats, and the past has shown us that Kemp and Loney have and can provide them. To incorporate them without making any trades, I propose these options:

1) Nomar to third

Nomar moves to third and Loney takes over full time at first. Tony Abreu would assume a utility infielder role, giving days off to Jeff Kent at 2nd (his natural position), and allowing Grady the luxury of playing Nomar at 1st in certain situations (against lefties, "days off").

2) Kemp to center

Kemp becomes primary option at center, with Pierre starting in advantageous matchups and assuming a fourth outfielder role. As much as I like what I know of Pierre as a person and the way he plays the game, he is no more than an overpaid Dave Roberts (which isn't good because Dave Roberts, himself, is overpaid at $5 mil a year). On the other hand, Roberts has proven he can be a very valuable utility outfielder, just ask Red Sox fans. Imagine this lineup with options 1 and 2 in in place:

Furcal, Martin, Gonzalez, Kent, Nomar, Kemp, Loney, Ethier.

3) Kemp becomes 4th outfielder

If, for some reason, the powers that be are obligated to stick with Pierre for reasons pertaining to contract and such, then Kemp could assume Brady Clark's role as the fourth outfielder -- sub in for Luis for defense, spell Pierre once in a while, pinch-hit and maybe even push Ethier for his spot in right.

I have been a big fan of Ramon Martinez and Brady Clark has been ok, but they are taking up spots that could be used much more effectively by Kemp and Loney. What's the worst that could happen? It's unlikely Kemp will go back to his struggles of over a year ago after playing so well since. Loney hit .380 last year in triple-A, and over .400 in Spring Training before falling into a slump early in the season that he is officially out of, so I find no reason to doubt how he could help the team. Plus, scouts have raved about his Gold Glove caliber defense for years. The only negative I can see would be fewer at-bats for Tony Abreu (batting .333), and having an extra infielder of his caliber is a dilemma I'm sure Grady Little can deal with.

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